Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.616440 1.832753 2.063318 2.326927 2.619526 2.933888 3.296725
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.383598 1.691944 2.042096 2.467437 2.968308 3.537467 4.231172
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.169047 1.536583 1.979705 2.549172 3.257008 4.102974 5.185098
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.038720 1.462629 2.003473 2.735923 3.692564 4.889182 6.487206
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.859278 1.298946 1.893238 2.741603 3.905336 5.427244 7.545939
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.727228 1.178380 1.823275 2.791343 4.181985 6.077370 8.818634
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.608242 1.056729 1.734458 2.803168 4.408366 6.684183 10.096404
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.535783 0.993695 1.722303 2.924226 4.803718 7.563972 11.836560
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.468137 0.926574 1.694067 3.016906 5.167144 8.432620 13.641391
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.403103 0.851914 1.642419 3.065113 5.466547 9.233243 15.416568
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.349839 0.788461 1.600071 3.122599 5.786147 10.092691 17.353946
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.290753 0.701631 1.502371 3.070614 5.916795 10.662871 18.884267
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.235238 0.612016 1.388946 2.982619 5.989997 11.170262 20.400096
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.200529 0.559641 1.339720 3.008687 6.270642 12.054263 22.618948
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.167421 0.502727 1.271274 2.987622 6.462862 12.805054 24.679435
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.149509 0.478918 1.270196 3.103935 6.930656 14.087080 27.766956
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.122298 0.423040 1.186384 3.033067 7.022856 14.695036 29.709634
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.103255 0.384198 1.135112 3.025497 7.241678 15.557132 32.179733
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.086003 0.345119 1.075297 2.988958 7.395064 16.306337 34.496934
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.076603 0.327947 1.068648 3.076392 7.822775 17.623042 37.974315
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.067517 0.308873 1.053165 3.140032 8.204810 18.878787 41.421533
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.058371 0.286344 1.023360 3.163045 8.497225 19.974855 44.631146
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.050918 0.267473 1.000350 3.200260 8.826299 21.171793 48.120427